Abstract

The aim of this work is to present a methodology, based both on the use methods of time series analyses andof geospatial analyses of monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), annualmaximum of short-duration rainfall (from 1 hour to 5 days), historical modification of land use, and populationvariations in order to characterise the effects of these variables on the occurrence of landsliding in Dauniaarea, located on the eastern margin of the Southern Apennines thrust belt (southern Italy). Rock strata (mainly)interbedded with clayey marls, clays and silty-clays outcrop in this area. Due to the intense strain history, thesesuccessions are found to be from stratified to deeply fractured, up to be disrupted and floating as blocks in aclayey matrix. In turn, the clay units are laminated to intensely fissured and characterised by very poor mechanicalproperties (Santaloia et al., 2012).The statistical analyses deal with data coming from published databases, integrated by public and privatedocuments, referring to a wide time span. Climate data records from 1877 to 2008 were elaborated, in particularthe data coming from sixteen rainfall gauges, ten of which were also thermometric. Moreover, some monthlyindices of rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, temperature, and landslide occurrence were introduced to simplifythe analysis of parameters, characterised by spatial and temporal variability. The population records are from the19th century up to now while the time period of reference for the land use data is from 1930 up to now.As concerns the landslide events, they were collected from 1918 to 2006. The main source of these records is theAVI database, an existing Italian database that collects data about damaging floods and landslides from 1918 to1996. This dataset was integrated up to 2006 by consulting newspapers, scientific publications, technical reports,written by the researchers of the CNR-IRPI for the Civil Protection, and also documents belonging to a researchproject (PS_119; Cotecchia et al. 2010). According to the landslide data collected, the landslide events resulted tobe 175 in the study area.The trend analyses show that the landslide occurrence was increased with the time, despite of the rainfall andtemperature data are not prone to landsliding. As a matter of fact, the trend of both the monthly rainfall andthe rainfall intensity decreases, and the temperature and the wet days show a positive trend during the period ofreference. The trend of the short-duration rainfall results generally to decrease.Not existing an evident relationship between climate variability and the increase of landslide occurrence, someother factors should be considered, as, for instance, the poor mechanical soil properties, the role of anthropogenicmodifications and the mismanagement of risk-prone areas. In this regards, the preliminary results obtainedfrom the data analyses

Autore Pugliese

• Santaloia Francesca , Polemio Maurizio

Tutti gli autori

• T. Lonigro; F. Santaloia; M. Polemio

Titolo volume/Rivista

Geophysical research abstracts

Anno di pubblicazione

2014

ISSN

1607-7962

ISBN

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Wos

Nessuna citazione

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Numero di citazioni Scopus

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Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

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Settori ERC

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Codici ASJC

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