Abstract

Several epidemiological studies have reportedadverse associations between exposure to ambientparticulate matter (PM) and mortality and morbidity forseveral causes. A crucial issue in the integratedenvironmental health impact assessment is the prognosisof PM pollution and, in particular, the way to accountfor secondary PM2.5 formation in presence of largeemissions of SO2 and NOx.Due to the complex non-linear gas-particlechemistry, modelling the formation of secondary PM2.5from a single point source would require theimplementation of complex photochemical grid models,which need as input all the emissions of the area andcontributions from external sources. These data arealmost never available. Consequently, the estimation ofthe impact of a single point source in forming secondaryPM2.5 is often disregarded in environmental and healthimpact assessments.The aim of this work was to estimate primary andsecondary PM2.5 originating from a single source usingthe dispersion model CALPUFF (Scire at al., 2000) intwo different simplified configurations and to assess theimpact in terms of attributable deaths. In Case A thechemical mechanism MESOPUFF was activated. Underthis chemical five species scheme (SO2, SO4+, NOx,HNO3, NO3-), daytime SO2 and NOx oxidation arehourly varying functions of background ozoneconcentration, solar radiation, atmospheric stability andplume NOx concentration. In Case B specific SO2 andNOx offset ratios (10:1 for SO2 and 100:1 for NO2) wereconsidered (Guerra et al. 2014), converting emissions ofprecursors into equivalent amounts of direct PM2.5emissions.As case of study, we considered the emissions ofthe coal power plant located in the municipality ofBrindisi in southern Italy (Figure 1). The study area is105x135 km2 wide and comprises two towns (Brindisiand Lecce) and 125 villages with a total population of1,152,000 individuals. We considered a 105 km x 135km Calmet/Calpuff modelling domain with a resolutionof 1.5 km x 1.5 km. Simulations were performed for theyear 2006.Figure 1. The area of studyThe estimated annual average and annual localmaximum values of primary PM2.5 were 0.02 and 0.22?g/m3 respectively. Primary PM2.5 decreases at half of itsmaximum values within 10 km from the source. In CaseA the estimated total (primary plus secondary) PM2.5extended over a larger area with annual average andannual spatial maximum values of 0.09 ?g/m3 and 0.43?g/m3, respectively. In Case B the total PM2.5 patternresembles that of the primary PM2.5; the estimatedannual average and maximum values of total PM2.5become 0.04 ?g/m3 and 0.55 ?g/m3, respectively.The number of estimated natural deaths potentiallyattributable to annual increased PM2.5 levels was derivedby a three-step procedure (Künzli et al., 1999, Beelen etal. 2014). This resulted in 4 deaths (95% CI 1-7)attributable to primary PM2.5 and increased respectivelyto 19 (95%

Autore Pugliese

• Gianicolo Emilio Antonio Luca , Mangia Cristina

Tutti gli autori

• C. Mangia; M.Cervino; E.A.L. Gianicolo

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Anno di pubblicazione

2015

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