Abstract

IntroductionOn September 26th 1976, in Manfredonia, Italy, a mixture containing arsenic compounds was released into the atmosphere due to an accident in a fertilizer production plant. 40 years later, the municipality promoted an epidemiological programme to investigate possible long-term health effects in the population.Aim of this work is to estimate population exposure to arsenic, taking into account uncertainties on the accident dynamics by using a dispersion model with different setup initial conditions.MethodsContaminant dispersion was estimated with the CALPUFF model initialized with a meteorological model. Meteorological data were not available at the plant location but only at two Air Force weather stations, a few kilometers away. Evaluation of the meteorological model was performed with data available on the same day and with data available in later years in similar synoptic conditions. Different hypothesis on puff vertical release, puff status and composition were assumed from direct testimonies, documental and literature information. We used measured arsenic deposition in soils around the town to test the model inputs.ResultsMeteorological model during the accident evidences complex mountain/sea breeze circulations under high-pressure synoptic conditions. It matches the nearby meteorological station records. Results indicate that the model is capable to reproduce the mean flow and dispersion with some uncertainties due to the hypothesis on the release characterization.ConclusionsFor the first time an up-to-date dispersion model was used and integrated with environmental data, testimonies and proxies to assess the population exposure during the Manfredonia accident. Uncertainties of results should be taken into account in the epidemiological study. The case study confirms the need to collect data on concentration and dispersion of released chemicals during the early phase of an accident, considering the difficulties in collecting them in a late phase.

Autore Pugliese

• Gianicolo Emilio Antonio Luca

Tutti gli autori

• C. Mangia; M. Cervino; A. Bruni; E.A.L. Gianicolo; G. Delle Noci

Titolo volume/Rivista

Environmental health perspectives

Anno di pubblicazione

2016

ISSN

0091-6765

ISBN

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Numero di citazioni Wos

Nessuna citazione

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Numero di citazioni Scopus

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Settori ERC

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Codici ASJC

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