Abstract

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study smallscale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information,non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance betweenthe computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easyto imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worseningof estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. Themodels' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly betterestimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand,even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simplersimulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression modelwas used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolationtime of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast positionand the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliableestimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been appliedto a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

Autore Pugliese

• Barca Emanuele , Passarella Giuseppe

Tutti gli autori

• Barca E.; Bruno D.E.; Passarella G.; Mikosz Goncalves R.; de Araujo Queiroz H.A.; Berardi L.

Titolo volume/Rivista

Geomorphology

Anno di pubblicazione

2018

ISSN

0169-555X

ISBN

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Wos

Nessuna citazione

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Scopus

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Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

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Settori ERC

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Codici ASJC

Non Disponibile