Abstract

Seasonality is a phenomenon that affects the vast majority of tourist destinations. The negative aspects of seasonality have been widely discussed from economic, social and environmental points of view. On the contrary, the unreliability of tourism demand forecasts is rarely listed among the negative effects of seasonality. This is despite the importance of the quality of forecasts for the planning of economic activities. This article evaluates the impact of different patterns of seasonality on tourism demand forecasting in the light of different volume of tourism flows. With this aim in mind, the monthly tourist overnight stays in four European countries – namely Austria, Finland, Portugal and Netherlands – are analysed for the period January 1990–December 2014. Data show both one-peak and two-peak seasonality. Results highlight that the stronger seasonality is, the less reliable forecasts are.

Autore Pugliese

• Vergori Anna Serena

Tutti gli autori

• Vergori A.S.

Titolo volume/Rivista

TOURISM ECONOMICS

Anno di pubblicazione

2017

ISSN

1354-8166

ISBN

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Wos

Nessuna citazione

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Scopus

Non Disponibile

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

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Settori ERC

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Codici ASJC

Non Disponibile