Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms

Abstract

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself.


Autore Pugliese

Tutti gli autori

  • Lin-Ye J. , García-León M. , Gràcia V. , Ortego M.I. , Lionello P. , Sánchez-Arcilla A.

Titolo volume/Rivista

APPLIED OCEAN RESEARCH


Anno di pubblicazione

2017

ISSN

0141-1187

ISBN

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Nessuna citazione

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Settori ERC

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Codici ASJC

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