Abstract

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transientAOGCMsimulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific.We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Autore Pugliese

• Lionello Piero

Tutti gli autori

• Uwe Ulbrich , Gregor C. Leckebusch , Jens Grieger , Mareike Schuster , Mirseid Akperov , Mikhail Yu. Bardin , Yang Feng , Sergey Gulev , Masaru Inatsu , Kevin Keay , Sarah F. Kew , Margarida L. R. Liberato , Piero Lionello , Igor I. Mokhov , Urs Neu , Joaquim G. Pinto , Christoph C. Raible , Marco Reale , Irina Rudeva , Ian Simmonds , Natalia D. Tilinina , Isabel F. Trigo , Sven Ulbrich , Xiaolan L. Wang , Heini Wernli

Titolo volume/Rivista

METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT

Anno di pubblicazione

2013

ISSN

0941-2948

ISBN

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Wos

39

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

27/04/2018

Numero di citazioni Scopus

39

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

28/04/2018

Settori ERC

Non Disponibile

Codici ASJC

Non Disponibile