Abstract

Fertility evolution in Italy has shown a deep drop in 1995, and up to now the fertility rate is considered among the lowest in the world. The empirical distribution of the age-specific fertility rates is characterized by a decreasing tendency of the maximum fertility rate and a simultaneous increase of the corresponding mother’s age. This tendency has been stimulating recent contributions in modelling and forecasting. The aim of this paper is to propose a dynamic model for describing and predicting the evolution of the Italian age-specific fertility rates over time. In particular, a well-documented model, such as a Gamma function, slightly modified in order to include time-varying stochastic parameters, is used to describe the systematic and macroscopic variations of the age-specific fertility rates over time, while a nonparametric geostatistical model is applied to describe the correlated residuals at microscopic level. Finally, predictions for the variable under study are provided and main empirical evidences of the temporal evolution for different mother’s ages are discussed.

Autore Pugliese

• Maggio Sabrina , De Iaco Sandra

Tutti gli autori

• De Iaco S. , Maggio S.

Titolo volume/Rivista

SPATIAL STATISTICS

Anno di pubblicazione

2016

ISSN

2211-6753

ISBN

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Wos

Nessuna citazione

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

Non Disponibile

Numero di citazioni Scopus

Non Disponibile

0

Ultimo Aggiornamento Citazioni

28/04/2018

Settori ERC

Non Disponibile

Codici ASJC

Non Disponibile